Michael Keating
Professor of Politics and ESRC Professorial Fellow, University of Aberdeen, Scotland
October 2011
The absolute majority gained by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the Scottish elections of 2011 ensures that there will be a referendum on independence before 2015. The unionist parties have indicated that they will not oppose the holding of a referendum but will campaign vigorously for a NO vote.
Surveys indicate that only a minority of Scots support independence and this share has not changed significantly since the first SNP election victory in 2007. On the other hand, voters do not seem to be particularly frightened by the prospect of independence. Public and much of political opinion in England also seems relaxed about it. So neither the nationalists nor the unionists have won the political argument.
